A novel publishing future: Signing more, printing less

Being in the midst of trying to get a manuscript (that's what you call a book before it gets accepted) published and having spent so many years analyzing the changes in industries as a result of disruptive technologies, I thought I'd share a view on how I think novel publishing -- particularly the part about signing new authors -- will change in the near future.


The gatekeeper rules

For those who have never tried to get published, the way it works today in the fiction world (very different than the non-fiction process) is as follows. First, you must fully finish a manuscript. When complete and edited, you send it off to agents (actually, you send a "query letter," a one-page manuscript pitch, and hope an agent wants to read a few or more chapters). If an agent agrees to take you on as a client -- and the odds are heavily against you as agents claim to receive from 200-500 query letters a week -- he/she will then pitch you to a publisher.

The big problem is that publishers are extremely hesitant to take on anyone not proven -- the risk is too great. For example, when signing a new author, the publisher pays an upfront signing bonus. But there's more money and resources involved than just that, obviously. They have to edit the manuscript, create a market and publicity plan, print and ship the book, and keep the promotion train on the tracks. And when books don't sell, a publisher isn't just out those early costs -- they end up taking back the unwanted/unsold books.

The odds are against any new author getting through this process, no matter how good the manuscript. Sure, the occasional new author makes it through. Most aspiring authors can tell you how J.K. Rowling and Stephanie Meyer made it (lots of rejections before massive success). Occasionally, you hear of a colossal failure post-signing, such as the huge advance (reportedly $900,000) paid to Reif Larsen who's debut novel never gained traction. On a rare occasion, there is even the story of the person that self-published and was picked up by a real publisher (some great stories here). But in general, there are few newbies that get through. The bulk of the wannabe author crowd gives up, retools, or takes a break from their dream.

For publishers, the strategy of taking on few new authors reduces their exposure and limits their failure rate, but it also ensures that they are likely to miss on many under-the-radar new authors. No doubt publishers would like to improve their success ratio with new authors without incurring the financial pain of having a horde of market failures. Luckily, in the near future, they can and most likely will adopt a strategy to do just that.

The eBook evolution

With eBooks beginning to take off -- Amazon reported that eBook titles are now outselling hardback books -- the process described above will begin to change.

In the past, marketing eBooks was largely about an additive product, but with the lower price of the most recent Kindle from Amazon and the success of the first-generation Apple iPad, more consumers will jump aboard the eBook reader wagon (tech note: while many dedicated eReaders have disappeared or become still-born this year, a future entrant, Android-powered tablets, will soon join the party and should thrive).

Cheaper and useful eBook readers, more eBook sales, and more consumers comfortable with reading eBooks means that publishers will become more willing to reengineer their process for acquiring new authors.


A two-tier future of the on-their-own newbies and the coddled, proven writers

Publishing's future is not about print-on-demand (POD), though that will be an important part of the industry, especially for low-volume, out-of-print, and self-published works. Instead, it will be about publishers signing more authors to deals -- but to smaller, eBook- and POD-only deals. These Entry-level Authors will be in charge of their own success. Only if they can prove the value of their works, using mostly their own marketing skills and leveraging technology like blogs and social media services, will these authors move to the Premier Author status. Premier Authors will enjoy the old-world perks: physical printing, bookstore placement, and dedicated marketing resources from the publisher.

The change from a small number of authors being signed and supported to many being signed but largely left on their own will impact the entire writing/agent/publishing food chain.

• More "book" content for consumers. The reader will have many more books to choose from, but mostly in eBook format. For those who want paper, especially for non-premier Authors, they can pay for a POD version of an up-and-coming novel.
  
  
• An easier path to a deal for authors. Publishing deals will be easier to come by, but the responsibility for success will be on the author. The writing process will initially separate those that really want to be authors from those who like the idea. Then the self-markting process will further separate would-be novelists from those that can write but aren't dedicated enough to succeed and those that can sell themselves and their product.
  
  

• Publishers will have a greater chance of signing the next best-selling author. With many more authors locked into small contracts, instead of worrying that they passed on the next Rowling, publishers will more often congratulate the graduation of one of their own from Entry-level to Premier status.
  
  

• More deals for agents, but volume will be king for many. With lower signing bonuses and unlikely returns on many signed authors, agents will have more on their plate as they have to accept a greater percentage of the incoming queries.