Afghanistan saved by the (mineral) bell?

An article in the New York Times today offered up the possibility that life in Afghanistan could be fundamentally altered due to the discovery of massive deposits -- "nearly $1 trillion" worth -- of important minerals, such as iron, copper, and lithium (used in, for example, the high-tech batteries of all your favorite portable consumer electronics gadgets, including the iPod nano, Nintendo DSi, and HTC EVO).

How big is the find? The article notes that Afghanistan could go from a country that is most well-known for growing opium poppies used in making heroin to "one of the most important mining centers in the world." That's pretty important for a country that has, according to the CIA Factbook, 35% unemployment and the 113th largest GDP in the world.

Prosperity or more carnage?

The result of the find could be that the new wealth will fundamentally change the country in ways that mirror what happened to countries in the Middle East when oil was discovered in that region. But it could also mean that the fighting intensifies once the enormity of the prize is understood by all.

In terms of possible peace disruptors driven by greed, it's not just the Taliban the US has to worry about. The warlords and regional power brokers all undermine the extremely weak Afghan central government. Even worse, some of the deposits are near the boarder with Pakistan. That border is already porous, and Taliban and other extremists, such as al Queda, move about relatively freely despite ever-present US drones.

With trillions at stake, fighters have even more to gain with victory.

Other impacts?
Besides the possibility of an escalation in fighting, the article notes other likely problems. For example, increased involvement by China in the country, which would be extremely interested in the valuable deposits, is a concern for the US government and military. Another issue noted was the possible environmental consequence by the required mining. In a country as war-torn, divided, and weakly led as Afghanistan, it is unlikely that a rapidly emerging mining industry would pay much attention to the environmental impact of its operations.

Outcome in doubt
With so many hurdles to overcome, from the lack of mining experience and infrastructure to a weak central government to a multi-faceted conflict, the belief that these new deposits magically will transform this part of the world and its people and enable US forces to largely withdraw seems naive. Still, having some potentially positive news out of the region is better than nothing these days.