Not knowing what democracy will bring (the surprise Hamas election victory)

The Bush Administration is adamant that spreading democracy -- particularly in the Middle East -- will lead to a more stable and safer world. But what happens when people, given the chance to vote, vote for a group the Administration doesn't believe is in the best interest of a more stable, safer world? And what happens when we learn that the US government had no idea that outcome would occur?

To be safer and more secure starts with an understanding of world events, an understanding that enables the US to craft the best strategy given reality. So it is extremely unnerving when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice admits the US did not see the Hamas victory coming.

"Well, I don't know anyone who wasn't caught off guard by Hamas' strong showing. Some say that Hamas itself was caught off guard by its very strong showing. But I think it speaks to the volatility in polling and in that kind of analysis in a place where there are -- where it's a very transitional and volatile political environment. I think what was probably underestimated was the depth of resentment of the last, really, decade of the corruption and the old guard and the like.

But certainly I've asked why nobody saw it coming and I hope that we will take a hard look, because it does say something about perhaps not having had a good enough pulse on the Palestinian population, as opposed to elites in Ramallah and the like. Now, to be sure, it's hard -- with the security situation it's hard to get people around -- but I've been long concerned and one of the things that I said in the repositioning was that we probably needed to get more people into places like Jerusalem, into places like Ramallah, so that we could have a better pulse. But sure, I'm concerned about it and we'll try to get an analysis of what we might have known better. But I want to emphasize, I don't think we were alone in being surprised."

On one hand, it is refreshing to hear Secretary Rice simply admit an intelligence and analysis failure instead of trying to spin the story. On the other hand, it is disturbing to hear that we -- and apparently all of our intelligence-gathering allies -- had no clue a Hamas victory was coming.

The surprise Hamas victory should be viewed as yet another wake up call to improve our intelligence and analysis capabilities. We cannot make effective decisions while making so many errors or overlooking possible outcomes. The Secretary of State should never be caught this off guard. It certainly makes you wonder about how good our intelligence and analysis in other areas, such as Iran and North Korea. Let's hope we get better -- and fast.